Since the 2022 Midterms the Republican caucus in the House has been fraught with turmoil.
The establishment is desperate to keep total control over the Party and its agenda while conservatives are demanding they fulfill their promises to working class Americans.
But Speaker Mike Johnson is feeling the heat after this Republican Congressman made the last announcement he wanted to hear.
A Narrow Majority to Start
When Republicans won the House Majority in 2022, they took over with a 222-213 majority.
With 218 votes needed to pass legislation in the 435-member House, Republicans could only afford for four members to vote with Democrats in opposition.
This pressure was felt right away when this Congress first convened, as a handful of GOP holdouts prevented former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from quickly being elected Speaker.
Republicans have been struggling to unify their caucus ever since, with conservatives using their leverage on seemingly every major party-line bill, and even forcing a vote to dump McCarthy as Speaker, and replacing him with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
Only Getting Narrower
As the 118th Congress has moved along, the GOP majority has continued to shrink.
Rep. McCarthy resigned from Congress after being removed as Speaker, Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) resigned in January, and Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) is departing this month.
Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was obviously expelled from Congress, and New York voters elected to replace him with Democrat Tom Suozzi.
Now, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced that he too will resign from Congress in April.
Upon his departure, Republicans will hold just a 217-213 majority, meaning the GOP can only afford to have one single member abstain or vote against the Party’s position on party-line legislation.
Tensions Will Only Get Worse
Republican Leadership effectively has two ways to proceed, and both are bound to dial up the vitriol further.
First, Speaker Johnson could focus on passing bills supported by the full Republican Party.
While this gives him an easier road to unifying the GOP, it comes with the drawback of increasing the likelihood of not receiving support from any Democrat member.
This helps President Joe Biden and Senate Democrats on the 2024 campaign trail, who will accuse Republicans of refusing to work with others to pass bills into law.
Alternatively, Speaker Johnson could decide to once again stab the Party’s conservative base in the back by choosing to work on legislation that suffices Democrats’ woke, anti-freedom demands.
While past Republican speakers gravitated toward this option, the current House is still governed by a rule in which a single Republican can motion to remove and replace the Speaker.
As a result, each and every time Speaker Johnson flirts with bending the knee to Democrats, he increases the chance that a conservative member will boot him from his post.
Both establishment and conservative Members of Congress supported Mike Johnson’s Speakership bid because they believed he was one of the few House Republicans who could keep the caucus unified.
Republicans’ 1-vote cushion in the House will now put Mike Johnson’s ability to keep the caucus unified – not to mention fulfill his promises to conservatives – to the ultimate test.
US Political Daily will keep you updated on any developments to this ongoing story.
