Following the 2022 midterms the media had a field day discussing the supposed demise of the Republican Party.
But as Mark Twain once said, the reports of the GOP’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
And now this political expert just explained how 2030 could be a decisive year for the Republican party.
Is 2022 a sign of things to come?
While the GOP did manage to narrowly take the gavel away from former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and gain a thin majority in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms, the much anticipated “red wave” never materialized.
Democrats bucked decades of history, and all of the standard election metrics, and actually gained a seat in the Senate.
When you combine that with the fact that Republicans have lost the popular vote in six of the past seven Presidential elections – the corporate-controlled media would have you believe the GOP will soon go the way of the Whig Party it replaced.
However, one of the leading political experts in the country is diving into the numbers, and has found that Republicans’ best days might still be ahead.
Who is Michael Barone?
Michael Barone is the mind behind The Almanac of American Politics anthology, which is considered the preeminent source of knowledge on Congressional districts.
He’s also the Senior Political Editor for The Washington Examiner, and a columnist for Townhall.
Barone was also one of the founding fathers that built Fox News’ decision desk that makes the network’s projections each election night.
And after the election mastermind poured over census data and recent moving trends, he found a silver lining for Republicans.
According to Barone, 2030 could be the start of at least a decade of GOP dominance.
Who will the 2030 census favor?
Barone’s study found that the GOP has more to look forward to beyond just consistent improvement with large swaths of Hispanic and black voters.
Barone suggested that if moving patterns continue to go as they have since 2020, the electoral map following the 2030 census will feature massive gains for Republican-led states and unprecedented losses for Democrat-controlled states.
“Based on extrapolations from 2022 Census Bureau estimates… California — which gained seats in every census from 1850 to 2000 and lost just one seat in 2020 — losing five seats in 2030. It shows New York losing three seats and Illinois two seats,” Barone wrote. “This reflects large-scale flight from our four most popular metropolitan areas, and from what are three of the most heavily taxed states, starting in the pandemic year (the 2020 census was taken as of April 1, when that flight was about to begin) and continuing as lockdowns were eased in the first half of 2022.”
According to the analysis, additional House seats, as well as crucial electoral votes, will mostly go to Texas and Florida – both of which have been the epicenter of working class Americans fleeing Democrat-controlled cities and states, and are on pace to add four electoral votes and four new House districts by 2030
Additionally, North Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and Idaho – and possibly Georgia and Arizona – could all be in line for at least an extra electoral vote and House seat, as well.
The only Democrat-controlled state on a positive trajectory, according to Barone’s study, is President Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware, which would also gain a seat if trends continue to hold.
How does the math add up?
The shift would leave Democrats with only 219 electoral votes in states that voted against former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
Swing states would also represent just 72 of the 538 electoral votes – the same they have under the 2020 census.
But states that went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, would represent 247 electoral votes, just 23 electoral votes shy of the 270 required to win the White House.
“This future isn’t inevitable — demographic trends can change over a decade, and the 2020-22 period was unusual,” Barone wrote. “Still, those empty office spaces and rising crime rates in Manhattan, Chicago, Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area suggest that these states are still bleeding House seats and electoral votes to the likes of Florida and Texas.”
US Political Daily will keep you up-to-date on any developments to this ongoing story.
