Democrats lost their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 Midterm elections.
They were able to hold their majority in the U.S. Senate, and pending the results of the Georgia runoff, could even net a seat.
But Chuck Schumer’s positive mood about the 2022 Midterms soon soured when he took a long look at the 2024 Senate map.
Who really “won” the 2022 Midterms?
A red wave never materialized in 2022.
It’s easy to make excuses for the GOP’s disappointing finish in Midterms this year.
They won back control of the U.S. House of Representatives, but just barely.
They lost a couple Governor seats.
And they failed to take back the majority in the U.S. Senate – and depending on what happens between Herschel Walker and incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock in the Georgia runoff on December 6, Republicans may even lose a Senate seat.
However, it is fair to wonder if a red wave was ever in the cards given the 2022 Senate map.
Heading into the Midterm cycle, the seats considered to be competitive included the above-mentioned Peach State race, as well as contests in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.
In five out of those eight races the GOP was playing defense – meaning if they could hold all those seats, which included three open races due to Republican retirements – the best outcome the red team could realistically hope for would be a net gain of three seats.
However, optimism grew and conservatives got their hopes up that flips were possible in New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington, and potentially even Connecticut.
But at the end of the day, that hope was never warranted – as Democrat Senators Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Michael Bennett of Colorado, Patty Murray of Washington, and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut all won easily.
In fact, all of them except Hassan won their races by a wider margin than Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer did in deep blue New York – and even Hassan barely outpaced Schumer.
2024 presents a very different map
And while New York’s senior Senator is all smiles these days while boasting about his big plans to grant a pathway to citizenship to “however many” illegal aliens are in the United States – that smile fades when he looks ahead to the next election cycle.
In 2024, it’ll be Democrats who are playing defense.
The terms of Democrat Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jon Tester of Montana, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia will all be up.
It remains to be seen if all four will run for re-election, but even if they do, three out of the four of those states are fertile red ground.
And in the Grand Canyon State, Sinema has to wonder if the far-Left base in the state will support her given she’s shown glimpses of common-sense on a few occasions.
In Montana, Tester – who votes unanimously along the Democrat Party line – campaigns and presents himself as a moderate, which could help him in the Big Sky State.
Tester won re-election in 2018 over Rep. Matt Rosendale by just 3.5-points.
But then-President Donald Trump won the state by 16.5-points in 2020 – meaning Tester will have his work cut out for him to defend his seat.
And Montana ran strong for the GOP in 2022.
Over in Buckeye State, Sen. Brown has run ahead of his party and has a level of personal popularity in the state.
He defeated current GOP Gov. Mike DeWine in 2006 by about 12.5-points to unseat the incumbent for his seat.
That margin was cut to 6-points when Brown won re-election in 2012 over then-Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel.
Brown won a third-term in 2018 over Rep. Jim Renacci by a similar margin of victory.
However, Ohio has moved considerably to the right since then – and the right opponent could spell trouble for the Democrat incumbent – assuming he runs again.
Then there’s West Virginia.
Joe Manchin was one of the most popular political figures in the Mountaineer State – however, that all changed when Manchin voted for Joe Biden’s so-called, “Inflation Reduction Act,” which actually has increased inflation and stabs West Virginia’s energy industry squarely in the back.
Since then, Manchin’s numbers have plummeted.
And the state has turned into one of the reddest in the entire country.
Already Rep. Alex Mooney has already announced his candidacy to take on Manchin, and other big names, including Gov. Jim Justice are rumored to be considering a run as well.
Do Democrats have opportunities?
Meanwhile, the Democrat’s best Upper Chamber pickup opportunities in 2024 appear to be against Texas’ Ted Cruz and Florida’s Rick Scott.
Cruz won re-election by just 2.5-points back in 2018, but that was on the heels of a controversial Presidential bid and with Democrats sinking big money to take him out.
It’s difficult to see an obvious rival Democrats could put up against him in 2024.
Meanwhile, in the Sunshine State following two-terms as Governor, Rick Scott unseated Democrat Bill Nelson in 2018 to flip the seat.
However, out of the more than 8 million ballots cast in the race, Scott won by about 10,000.
But Florida has moved considerably to the right in Ron DeSantis’ four years as Governor and Democrats just took a beating in the state in the 2022 Midterms.
Which political party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 elections?
